Rob Stengel

"Brian Moynihan is here tonight. He’s the C.E.O. of Bank of America. As many of you know, Brian’s..."

Sat, 03 Dec 2011 01:10:18 -0500

“Brian Moynihan is here tonight. He’s the C.E.O. of Bank of America. As many of you know, Brian’s brother Patrick runs a Catholic boarding school in Haiti. Their parents must be so proud to see two of their boys running an underfunded, nonprofit organization.”

- Steve Schwarzan (via amaeryllis)

Terror Won? Not Quite

Sun, 11 Sep 2011 15:48:00 -0400

It’s 9/11 again. Like the nine anniversaries that came before, it’s a time for reflection not only on the unique horror of that day, but also on the aftermath. Though the victim’s families finally have a permanent place to mourn and find some measure of cathartic resolution, the personal and national search for meaning will continue.

The question of whether we’ve responded appropriately to terrorism is central to the nation’s deliberation. The idea of “letting the terrorists win” is the most simplistic manifestation of that uncertainty. The United States has spent the last ten years at war - with two nations and in many others. The cost has been immense. It’s legitimate to ask what we have gained from it.

More importantly, our approach to domestic security has changed dramatically. With an insistence that the law was insufficiently deferential to law enforcement and security agencies, the Bush administration set about changing the laws. Today the government has more power to know, document, and change our lives than ever before. In some cases, even that was not enough - and the law was ignored. Today there is often more indignity and suspicion thrust upon travelers at American airports than customers in American gun shops. Undoubtedly we have lost some part of the free society we once were. What is worse, we - in Congress and in the public at large - were accomplices then and we remain so today. We demanded safety over liberty.

It is unlikely that we will ever change our minds. Kevin Drum provides a thoughtful opinion on this:

I imagine the wars will all be over eventually, Al Qaeda will conclusively dismembered, and even the drones might be put back in their hangars. But the protective apparatus we’ve put in place, both the less visible surveillance state and the highly visible security state, will be with us forever. And they’ll get worse and worse …

But I think this is peripheral to the question of whether “the terrorists have won.” It’s common to hear the argument that if we have changed the way we live our lives, then they have won. If we don’t get on the subway, or bus, or a plane, then they have won. If our civil liberties have eroded, then they have won. This is false. Terrorists win when they achieve - or come closer to achieving - their political goals.

Though there is no standard or uniform definition of terrorism, I’d imagine the least controversial one runs roughly like this: Terrorism consists of (1) acts of violence against persons, property not found “on the battlefield” (2) conducted by irregular forces often not acting under the auspices of a recognized nation (3) the intent of which is to change the mood of a populous (4) to achieve a political goal.

The success or lack of success of terrorism of terrorist acts or campaigns can be judged from both tactical and strategic perspectives. Tactical success is simple to achieve: did the bomb go off? Were people killed? Was it caught on camera? Etc.

Strategic success is more complicated: Was the broad political agenda of a terrorist group achieved? It’s distressingly common (to me) to hear that Osama bin Laden managed to achieve a great many of his goals before being killed. Yes, the United States was drawn into two immensely costly wars. We have lost lives, and taken many more ourselves. We have given away our liberty. We should feel the shame of these blunders.

But our shame is not necessarily Al-Qaeda’s success. The United States is mired in a variety of economic problems: a recent financial crisis and the ensuing recession, unprecedented income inequality, declining levels of union membership. But the ability of the United States to pay its debts - including the colossal debt we have undertaken to finance wars in Afghanistan and Iraq - is not in question. And those problems we do have are of our own making.

A large part of bin Laden’s war on the west was predicated on striking at the economic dominance of the United States. His experience fighting the Soviet Union in Afghanistan was a valuable lesson in bleeding empires of their money. He imagined the same was possible with the United States.

Not only that. Our staggering wealth was a particularly valuable tool in recruiting the desperate youth caught in the entrenched poverty of the Middle East, Central Asia, and North Africa. If he could leverage jealousy of our wealth and power, he could make war with the west a flag around which to rally the disenfranchised of the Muslim world.

Two major goals are clear here: the bankruptcy of the United States and unity in the Muslim world.

Consider today.

The United States can borrow at negative real interest rates. Not only are we not on the brink of economic collapse; creditors are willing to pay the US government for the privilege of loaning it money. What economic dominance we are losing is headed to China and India, not to a newly unified Muslim world.

Al-Qaeda’s campaign of violence did not unify the Muslim world. The years immediately following the invasion of Iraq were defined by sectarian conflict, which Al-Qaeda was careful to exploit. The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point found that Al-Qaeda claimed eight times as many Muslim lives as non-Muslim lives between 2004 and 2008. Is it any wonder that the group’s popularity has plummeted in the Muslim world?

And perhaps the most bitter defeat for Al-Qaeda must have been the sight of young, poor Muslims crowding the streets of Middle Eastern and North African cities demanding democracy. The “Arab Spring” movement is fueled by exactly the same kind of class resentment bin Laden sought to leverage.

As though that were not enough, Al-Qaeda’s comparatively smaller defeats are many.

Bin Laden sought to remove the United States from Saudi Arabia. We remain there.

Bin Laden decried the moral depravity of American culture. It has proliferated further into the world than ever before.

Bin Laden sought to carry out more attacks within the United States. In a nation where fertilizer and city buses are easily accessible, not one has succeeded.

His organization is in tatters. Its goals remain unaccomplished. He is dead.

The fact that we have so brazenly sacrificed many of our civil liberties - probably permanently - is tragic, but not relevant to the issue of whether Al-Qaeda has or has not succeeded. Remember that bin Laden considered the Taliban’s Afghanistan - not a society that valued civil liberties very highly - to be his model for remaking the Muslim world. I find it very hard to believe that he cares one way or the other how we organize our security policy.

We don’t need to ask whether or not “the terrorists have won.” Al-Qaeda is defeated. What should keep us up at night is the price we paid for that victory.

"It’s also hard to fathom what Mr. Perry means when he calls for the Fed to “open its books up.” It..."

Fri, 02 Sep 2011 16:13:52 -0400

“It’s also hard to fathom what Mr. Perry means when he calls for the Fed to “open its books up.” It publicly releases its current balance sheet every Thursday at approximately 4:30 p.m., and it’s available on the Fed’s Web site. Mr. Perry’s campaign didn’t respond to a request for comment.”

- Vitriol for Bernanke, Despite the Facts in The New York Times

"A long, long period of halting and slow growth was baked in the cake when he took office,”..."

Tue, 16 Aug 2011 07:23:57 -0400

““A long, long period of halting and slow growth was baked in the cake when he took office,” said Harvard University economist Kenneth Rogoff, a former adviser to Obama’s 2008 GOP opponent, John McCain, and the co-author of an acclaimed 2009 book on the nature of economic crises, This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly. “It’s very difficult after such a huge credit bubble and financial collapse to recover all that much faster than we’ve been doing. It wouldn’t have mattered if McCain had won. We would have been in a similar situation.””

-
How Much Is Obama Really to Blame for the Economy? - The Atlantic

"Few things have been more productive of controversy over the ages than the suggestion that the rich..."

Sun, 24 Jul 2011 12:28:00 -0400

“Few things have been more productive of controversy over the ages than the suggestion that the rich should, by one device or another, share their wealth with those who are not. With comparatively rare and usually eccentric exceptions, the rich have been opposed. The grounds have been many and varied and have been principally noted for the rigorous exclusion of the most important reason, which is simply the unwillingness to give up the enjoyment of what they have. The poor have generally been in favor of greater equality. In the United States this support has been tempered by the tendency of some of the poor to react sympathetically to the cries of pain of the rich over their taxes and of others to the hope that one day soon they might be rich themselves.”

- -John Galbraith, writing in The Affluent Society

It’s hard to understate the irony of belief in “the American dream” inhibiting its actual accomplishment. It’s also important not to understate it.

"Democratic critics of the plan suggest that enacting it would be akin to pushing Grandma over a..."

Sat, 18 Jun 2011 12:24:00 -0400

“Democratic critics of the plan suggest that enacting it would be akin to pushing Grandma over a cliff. But they rarely point out that the premium-support model is in some ways similar to the system set up under President Obama’s health care law. If choosing among competing private plans on a government-regulated exchange is a good idea for someone at age 50, why is it so horrific for someone who is 70?”

- This ridiculous quote can be found in Greg Mankiw’s puzzling column, “Seriously, Some Consensus on Health-Care”, today in the New York Times.

I suppose the answer goes something like this: It’s not the competitive exchange model that Democrats hate. It just might (IMHO) be the fact that the Ryan plan’s Medicare subsidies decline over time, until Medicare covers only a very small percentage of the average senior’s costs. It’s not quite pushing Grandma over a cliff, but it is like giving her a paper hang glider first.

"More recently, I’ve been seeing claims that Vouchercare would be just like the system created for..."

Mon, 06 Jun 2011 11:45:27 -0400

“More recently, I’ve been seeing claims that Vouchercare would be just like the system created for Americans under 65 by last year’s health care reform — a fairly remarkable defense from a party that has denounced that reform as evil incarnate.”

- Paul Krugman’s column today is so good it warrants a second quote.

"So let me make two points. First, Obamacare was very much a second-best plan, conditioned by..."

Mon, 06 Jun 2011 11:44:17 -0400

“So let me make two points. First, Obamacare was very much a second-best plan, conditioned by perceived political realities. Most of the health reformers I know would have greatly preferred simply expanding Medicare to cover all Americans. Second, the Affordable Care Act is all about making health care, well, affordable, offering subsidies whose size is determined by the need to limit the share of their income that families spend on medical costs. Vouchercare, by contrast, would simply hand out vouchers of a fixed size, regardless of the actual cost of insurance. And these vouchers would be grossly inadequate.”

- Paul Krugman, cutting through conservative’s attempts to pass off their Medicare plan as something less than radical.

"In 2009 a similar bill, also introduced by O’Donnell, passed out of Assembly. It ultimately..."

Fri, 03 Jun 2011 11:21:44 -0400

“In 2009 a similar bill, also introduced by O’Donnell, passed out of Assembly. It ultimately failed in the Senate by eight votes — even though the Senate was then controlled by Democrats. It’s now controlled by Republicans.”

- TPM reports on a Quinnipiac Poll showing support for legalized gay marriage at 58% in New York state. The State Senate is again the largest impediment standing in the way of our best shot yet at real marriage equality in New York.

thenewrepublic: United States of Science! Brilliant map of how...

Fri, 03 Jun 2011 11:00:40 -0400

thenewrepublic:

United States of Science! Brilliant map of how each state shines in science, nature and public health, courtesy of Mother Nature Network.

today: “…Michelle Obama is unfortunately positioned in front of...

Thu, 02 Jun 2011 18:36:57 -0400

today:

“…Michelle Obama is unfortunately positioned in front of a large plant.”

Shenzen, part of the “Hong Kong-Shenhzen-Guangzhou region...

Fri, 13 May 2011 17:16:25 -0400

Shenzen, part of the “Hong Kong-Shenhzen-Guangzhou region in China, home to 120 million people.”

“The world’s mega-cities are merging to form vast “mega-regions” which may stretch hundreds of kilometres across countries and be home to more than 100 million people, according to a major new UN report.”

"Libertarianism: The belief that pursuing one’s own self-interest, while shirking larger social..."

Fri, 13 May 2011 14:12:15 -0400

“Libertarianism:

The belief that pursuing one’s own self-interest, while shirking larger social responsibilities, is still somehow humanitarian.”

- Urban Dictionary (via ryking)

What Condorcet and Debt Ceiling Polls Say About the Average Voter

Fri, 13 May 2011 13:46:00 -0400

There’s always been an inherent tension between our society’s want to acknowledge the central role of the individual - as a voter - in democracy, and the need to have a somewhat competent government. That’s why Senators were originally elected by state legislators and it’s why we have a voting age of 18.

The debate over whether or not to raise the federal debt ceiling is highlighting this tension. TPM is reporting today that a plurality of Americans - 47% - oppose raising the debt ceiling. 34% counted themselves as undecided, but if we assume that they would split evenly if forced to make a count, there is a clear majority of the public that would oppose raising the debt ceiling. What are these people thinking?

You’d be hard-pressed to find a economist who thinks forcing the federal government to default on its debts is good policy. In fact, Congressional Republicans are only threatening to vote against the debt ceiling increase to extract some of their own policy goals from Democrats. So why is the public so ignorant in comparison to elites in the government?

Some academics have argued that the public isn’t really all that incompetent. Gerald Gaus argues in his paper ”Is the Public Incompetent? Compared to Whom? About What?” that the idea that there is an elite that is better at producing policy proposals than the general public,

assumes that (i) we know what sort of knowledge is relevant for “good outputs” and (ii) the experts or the elite have a lot more of it. We cannot even begin to provide an answer to (ii) unless we know (i).

Basically, if we want to say that elites are more competent at policy, we need to say why they are. But is that really true? What if it’s just obvious?

This is where Condorcet is relevant. Condorcet argues - intuitively - that the likelihood of a voting body making the correct choice is directly related the average voter’s likelihood of making the correct choice. As Gaus himself describes it, “if the judgment of the average voter has even a tiny bit better than random chance of being correct, the majority opinion is almost certainly correct.”

And yet we have with the debt ceiling an obvious example of the public coming up with the wrong policy choice. Using some pretty simple deduction, we end up stuck with the idea that the average voter would be more likely to make the correct choice on economic policy by tossing a coin than by using their brain.

We don’t need to satisfy Gauss’ strange set of requirements to show the public as less competent than elite policymakers. They’ve done that all on their own.

"The two compliment each other: the city center, in its higher urban forms, and the streetcar suburbs..."

Thu, 12 May 2011 15:50:06 -0400

“

The two compliment each other: the city center, in its higher urban forms, and the streetcar suburbs – what we now call transit-oriented development – really help each other.

Part of the mistake that the right-wing makes here is that they think in order to be ecological, everybody has to be forced into the same lifestyle, and that’s just not true.

”

- SmartPlanet’s interview with Peter Calthorpe, author of Urbanism in the Age of Climate Change

"But that may not be what’s important here. Even if nothing changes in the overall trajectory of the..."

Mon, 02 May 2011 19:17:33 -0400

“But that may not be what’s important here. Even if nothing changes in the overall trajectory of the United States’ long war against terrorist threats, his death provides a measure of narrative closure for his victims here and abroad. President Obama proclaimed forcefully last night that “justice has been done.” And, right now, that feels like enough.”

- Me, at NYU Local this morning.

This is a great visual look at how far ahead of us France is on...

Sat, 30 Apr 2011 20:46:26 -0400

This is a great visual look at how far ahead of us France is on high speed rail. On top you can see a map of France TGV (train à grande vitesse - literally “very fast train”) system. Below is a representation of the United State’s standard (not high speed) rail system.

Only in the Northeast Corridor (which runs down the Atlantic coast from Boston to New York, Philadelphia, and Washington) does the United states have a density of rail service that matches anything in Europe.

All images, including the one below of the Northeast Corridor, can be found on the website of graphic designer Cameron Booth.

"Bridging the line between clothing and architecture, the spacesuit is a portable environment: a..."

Sat, 30 Apr 2011 20:29:03 -0400

“Bridging the line between clothing and architecture, the spacesuit is a portable environment: a continuation of habitable space, safe for human beings, capable of radical detachment from the Earth.”

- Spacesuit: An Interview with Nicholas de Monchaux, at BLDG BLOG.

Can we replace malls with mixed-use neighborhoods? Sounds like a...

Sat, 30 Apr 2011 20:26:15 -0400

Can we replace malls with mixed-use neighborhoods? Sounds like a great idea to me.

Is High-Speed Rail Worth It?

Fri, 01 Apr 2011 13:51:27 -0400

Is High-Speed Rail Worth It?